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Heading into 2020, we maintained our preference for growth stocks as we believed that earnings growth would become harder to come by as the economic cycle aged, and their robust earnings growth was greatly appealing. These same growth...

Rising COVID-19 cases and concern about the policy environment put a dent in small business optimism in the month of December, the index’s second straight monthly decline. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the National...

Treasury yields hit two key levels the first week of 2021. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 1% for the first time since March 2020, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of...

The differences in strength between the stock market and real economy were laid bare this week as the stock market surged to new highs while the jobs market continued to deteriorate and remains well short of its February peak. The US...

2020 was a good year for stock investors despite unprecedented challenges. After being down more than 30% at the March 2020 lows, the S&P 500 Index ended the year with a solid 18.4% total return. Last year marked the first time the...

US investment-grade bonds had a solid 2020 despite a tumultuous year overall. The broad Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index had a total return of 7.5%—not as strong as 2019’s 8.7% but its fifth-best year in the last...

Welcome to the last day of 2020! It has been a devastating year in so many ways, yet for investors it has been quite rewarding. Much of the gains in 2020 have taken place the final two months, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 14% in...

For many economic data series, 2020 has been a roller coaster. Not for housing, however. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and social distancing measures jump-started the “nesting” behavioral shift away from urban...

2020 was an extraordinary year for the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed responded swiftly and decisively to the rapidly accelerating financial and economic uncertainty brought on by efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. The current...

“If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” —Yale Hirsh December is widely known as one of the best months of the year for stocks, but most don’t realize that the majority of the gains...

With concern about inflation rising for some investors, we’ve started to receive questions about Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS. With TIPS, the principal of the bond, the part that’s paid back when the...

Brexit, the United Kingdom’s (UK) withdrawal from the European Union (EU), is making news again as it stumbles toward its apparent conclusion on December 31, 2020. The major sticking point now: fish. The UK officially left the EU...

Leading economic indicators are flashing yellow, as it becomes clearer that rising COVID-19 case counts and renewed lockdowns are inflicting damage on a budding economic recovery. On December 18th, the Conference Board released its...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) demonstrated Wednesday in its final policy meeting of the year—again—that it has not exhausted the tools it has for supporting the economy and still holds plenty in reserve. The Fed kept its target...

Stocks continue to surprise to the upside, with the Russell 2000 Index (small caps) and the Nasdaq making new all-time highs on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index, a chip shot from new highs, already has made 30 new highs so far this year....

Back in July, we wrote in our July 23 blog that dollar weakness may continue, highlighting a short-term bearish technical case for the US dollar. Since then, the Bloomberg US Dollar Index and the US Dollar Index (DXY) are down 5.3% and...

The November reading for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most well-known measure of inflation, was released Thursday, December 10, and while both the headline and “core” readings (excluding food and energy) came in...

This week we released Outlook 2021: Powering Forward, with our 2021 market and economic views. In the past several Outlook publications, we have favored the United States over developed international in equity allocations...

Tuesday, we released our 2021 market views in Outlook 2021: Powering Forward. We are extremely proud of this report and we can’t wait to hear your feedback! As we explain in Outlook 2021, we anticipate a strong earnings rebound...

2020 has been a tumultuous year, and as we near its close, we are pleased to present Outlook 2021: Powering Forward, which outlines our views on markets, the economy, and policy into 2021 and beyond. Policy changes should be relatively...

The pace of US jobs growth slowed further in November, adding fuel to what’s been borne out by recent high-frequency data: The economic recovery is increasingly cooling in the face of rising COVID-19 cases and renewed lockdowns....

COVID-19 cases have been on the rise in the US, particularly in the Midwest. This latest wave of the virus and related restrictions have begun to hamstring economic growth at a time when momentum was already fading as we entered the...

What a month November was! Here are some of the highlights: Best month for Dow since January 1987 (11.9%) and best November since 1928 Best month ever for the STOXX 600 (16.7%) Best month ever for the Russell 2000 (18.3%) Best month...

Not surprisingly, corporate credit spreads widened dramatically back in March 2020, making corporate bonds cheap relative to historical averages. (Credit spreads are the extra yield corporate bonds offer versus similarly dated...

As 2020 winds down, it has been an extremely tough year on all of us. Still, there are many reasons to be thankful and today we will share some reasons investors should be thankful. Stocks have had one of the largest reversals ever in...

It may be a year or more before the end of the recession is officially called, but gauging from the growth we’ve seen since April, it may already be over. If that’s true, it’s a good time to take a look at what US...

COVID-19 cases have been rising in several regions around the world, prompting many countries to implement new restrictions to curb the spread of the virus. Governments in a few European countries have rolled out what has been dubbed...

Leading economic indicators are confirming what high-frequency data has been telling us for weeks: The rate of the domestic economic recovery, while still positive, is slowing. On November 19, the Conference Board released its October...

Real-time European COVID-19 and economic data provides an insight into how the pandemic is affecting economies around the world. We’re monitoring real-time data because traditional economic data is too slow to pick up the changes...

First, the big economic data point this week was retail sales. Although the headline number was a little light at 0.3% versus an expected 0.5% gain month-over-month, it still hit another new all-time high along the way (source: US...

Fixed income investors aren’t used to having to deal with the volatility of stocks, but in the year that is 2020, that is exactly what has happened thus far. Unfortunately, while we don’t see the volatility of Q1 2020...

It took more than two years, but small caps finally broke out to new highs, as the Russell 2000 Index on Friday closed at its first new high since August 31, 2018. This capped off one of the longest stretches ever without a new high....

This year’s Masters Golf Tournament teed off Thursday at the Augusta National Course in Georgia. While there will be some familiar sights as the players compete for the coveted green jacket, it will also be a year unlike any...

Bond markets have had quite a ride since Election Day. The 10-year Treasury yield had been climbing very slowly in the months leading up to the election as the economy improved, but possibly also in anticipation of a potential...

Stocks just had their best week since April, with the S&P 500 Index incredibly a chip shot away from new all-time highs. Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States, but markets are confident Republicans will maintain the...

The US labor market shrugged off election uncertainty and continued to add jobs in October. Despite the waning effects of fiscal stimulus and rising COVID-19 cases, per the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 638,000...

As of Thursday morning, a winner to the 2020 presidential election has yet to be “officially” declared as several battleground states have yet to be called. Even as more clarity emerges from remaining votes being counted in...

The election is over, but the questions are mounting. We don’t know who will be the next president as of Wednesday morning, but we do know that stocks tend to do well the final two months of an election year. “Once the...

With Election Day a mere five days away, we at LPL Research thought we would add one last election forecaster to the mix of what we’ve presented over the last several months—as much because of what it might tell us about...

The outbreak of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns triggered the largest quarter over-quarter decline in gross domestic product (GDP) since WWII, so perhaps it comes as no surprise that the following quarter tallied the sharpest...

Historically it has been unwise to attempt to “play” the stock market ahead of an election in an attempt to position based on perceived implications of a president’s policies, but the municipal bond market may be more...

With the election only eight days away and earnings season in full swing, stocks have bucked the usual October weakness during election years so far in 2020 (Monday’s losses notwithstanding). The good news is this could continue,...

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book presented qualitative data that suggested the pace of the economic recovery had been tapering, as we discussed in the LPL Research blog, Beige Book Shows Pace of Recovery is Moderating, but...

We have seen a historic rebound in economic growth since the US economy emerged from lockdowns, but the pace of the economic rebound has tapered in recent weeks as the effects of fiscal stimulus fade. The recently released Federal...

Now that we have your attention with that eye-grabbing title, there’s definitely something to the idea that stocks perform better the year after a sitting president wins reelection. “Think about it—usually when a...

The 10-year US Treasury yield, at 0.77% as of October 19, is still near historical lows set earlier this year. Historically, 10-year Treasury performance for the next 10 years has tended to track the Treasury yield at the start of the...

There are many charts that caught our attention this week, and today we share the top 5 charts we’re watching. The S&P 500 Index recently had a four-week losing streak and fell nearly 10% along the way, while the Nasdaq and many...

We continue to monitor real-time COVID-19 and economic data to provide insight into how the pandemic is affecting economies around the world. Traditional economic data sometimes can be too slow to pick up the changes that are occurring...

With Election Day just under a month away and voting already taking place in many states, it is still anyone’s guess who will win on November 3. With all of the noise surrounding the election, we prefer to focus on the signals...

The 10-year Treasury yield has stayed in a narrow range since April 2020, helped by a supportive Federal Reserve and ongoing concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. As shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, the 10-year Treasury yield...

Stimulus talks in Washington, DC, are getting a lot of attention from investors—and for good reason. The midpoint of the two offers—roughly $1.6 trillion from the White House and $2.2 trillion from US House...

Stocks fared well during the third quarter despite September’s weakness, with the S&P 500 Index returning about 9%. The quarterly gain brought the return through the first nine months of the year to 5.6%. Here we peel back the...

The third quarter was characterized by the carry-over of economic momentum from the second quarter, as states continued to lift restrictions to reopen their economies. Perhaps it was no surprise that some of the hardest hit and most...

Index Performance View expanded table. View expanded table. View expanded table. US and International Equities The S&P 500 Index gave back some gains in September after a strong five-month run, with most sectors finishing in the red....

First and foremost, we wish President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump a swift and full recovery. This October surprise raises the already high level of political uncertainty markets are dealing with as Election Day approaches...

With the election drawing near, politicians, pundits, and especially voters will be paying even closer attention to the state of the US economy. It’s been a wild ride since the outbreak of COVID-19 around the world, and with such...

“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” Mark Twain After a historic 60%...

The first presidential debate is now in the books, with two more (maybe) ahead and a vice presidential debate on October 7. The debate was raucus, occasionally uncouth, and more than a little surreal for viewers at home. But did...

An old Wall Street adage says bond markets are smarter than equity markets, so when stocks encounter volatility, investors often look to the bond market for clues about the potential severity of equity market weakness. The...

The first presidential debate is tonight, September 29, with millions of people expected to tune in to see how each candidate handles the pressure. With tensions heightened amid an election that may be much closer than the polls...

The September weakness continued with the S&P 500 Index 9.6% off the all-time high set on September 2 (as of 9/23/20). It is important to remember that after a 60% rally in the S&P 500—and much more in some of the large cap tech...

In recent months, we have warmed up to Europe as a destination for equity investments in global portfolios. Through July, Europe had done a relatively good job containing the first wave of COVID-19, and cases were plummeting to...

On March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 Index closed down 2.9% for the day, bringing its total loss from its all-time high to 33.9%. The index was in the midst of its fastest bear market ever. A day earlier, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo had...

A few weeks ago we looked at how different bond sectors performed during rising rate periods during the last economic cycle (2009–2020). Today we look at falling rate periods—not the outcome we expect, but it can still be...

We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide timely and valuable insights into the state of the US economy. Traditional economic data is often reported too slowly to pick up...

One of the top requests we’ve received the past few weeks is for more charts on the US elections. We shared some of our favorite in Election Charts You Need to See: Part 1 and Part 2, and today’s the third blog in our...

Retail sales rose 0.6% month over month in August following July’s downwardly revised 0.9% advance, but sales fell short of Bloomberg’s consensus expectation for a 1% increase. The retail sales control group, which excludes...

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) both meet this week, while the European Central Bank (ECB) met last week. When central bankers talk— markets listen. “The global economy has been steadying faster than...

As we noted last week, the demand for election charts is off the charts (pun intended), so we are sharing some of our favorite election charts. Without further ado, here are some more election charts you need to know as November 3...

First off, our thoughts go out to everyone who was impacted by the tragic events of September 11, 2001—19 years ago today. It is a day to reflect and remember those who were lost. One of the top requests we’ve had here at...

With everything else going on this year due to COVID-19, it’s been easy to lose track of the latest fallout of the United Kingdom’s (UK) withdrawal from the European Union (EU), also known as Brexit. The UK is currently in...

While the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield over the last cycle was decidedly lower, as shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, there were still six extended periods where it rose at least 0.75%, and in two of those it rose almost...

The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In...

The outbreak of COVID-19 caused considerable deterioration in the economy and left many wondering when we might expect conditions to improve. As historic stimulus measures were implemented to backstop the economy from outright collapse...

The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row. First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of...

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell gave a significant speech at the annual central bank symposium at Jackson Hole last week in which he laid out the general conclusions of the Fed’s review of its Statement on Longer-Run...

What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day...

The incredible rally off the March 23 bear market bottom continues, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 50% from those fateful lows. It feels like a lifetime since the longest bull market ever ended. Remember though, although the...

As the economy begins to recover, with the early stage more robust than expected, we increasingly get asked when interest rates will move meaningfully higher. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, historically rates don’t start...

“Better late than never.” It took a while, but the S&P 500 Index finally made a new all-time high, coming all the way back from the vicious 34% bear market in less than six months. View enlarged chart. It might bring back...

As the COVID-related economic weakness that characterized the first half of the year subsides, growth has begun to return as trillions in fiscal stimulus have helped to stabilize consumer spending. Against a backdrop of improving labor...

The S&P 500 Index has been flirting with a new all-time high the past few days and is currently less than half a percent away from exceeding the last all-time high set on February 19. What a different world it is from that last new...

We continue to follow high-frequency data to assess whether the US recovery remains on track or if it has been derailed by COVID-19 outbreaks in parts of the country. Here we look at 5 charts that illustrate that the economic recovery...

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20%...

As election season heats up, we are often presented with questions regarding market returns based on the political party composition of the White House and Congress. In our Election Preview Weekly Market Commentary, we took a closer...

After falling the most on record in April, the US labor market has rebounded with three consecutive months of job gains, adding back more than 9 million of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. In July, the economy added back...

We’ve written quite a bit lately about the deterioration in high-frequency data. Indicators of mobility (such as auto and air travel, commuting activity, restaurant diners, etc.) leveled off in July due to the latest wave of...

This isn’t like any recession we’ve ever seen, as it was sparked by a horrible pandemic and happened because people were told to stay inside. The impact was the worst contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) last quarter...

The 10-year Treasury yield is historically low, so low that it could climb a full 1% before the end of the year and still be the lowest year-end yield on record, with room to spare. Historically low rates come with a genuine concern...

2020 has been historic and devastating in many ways, from the fastest bear market ever, to one of the greatest stock market recoveries ever. Not to mention a historic drop in the economy in the second quarter, with likely a record jump...

Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook. These five stocks have helped spawn a number of acronyms as they try to capture the rise of mega-cap tech stocks that have led the market higher for much of the past decade. The average...

The best thing we can say about today’s US gross domestic product (GDP) report for the second quarter is that it’s behind us. GDP contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate during the quarter, the largest decline on record. If...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) completed its latest two-day policy meeting Wednesday, July 29, and the primary message coming from the world’s most important central bank was a continued commitment to supporting the economy as long as...

“An object in motion tends to remain in motion along a straight line unless acted upon by an outside force.” Sir Isaac Newton Last September, we noted that gold had many structural reasons to soar. Well, soar it has,...

After carving out the first part of a “V-shaped” recovery, the US economy has leveled off somewhat in response to the latest wave of COVID-19 infections. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary: Stalling Economic...

“That’s not a knife … that’s a knife!” Paul Hogan in Crocodile Dundee There is growing talk that growth stocks and specifically technology stocks are in a bubble. But as Paul Hogan showed is in the...

The US dollar was remarkably strong during the first quarter of 2020, benefitting from the flight to safety and rallying to nearly a 10% year-to-date gain at the stock market’s low point on March 23. However, as equity markets...

Leading economic indicators continued to rebound in June, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in May. Yesterday, The Conference Board released its June report detailing the latest reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a...

LPL Research released it's Midyear Outlook 2020 last week, discussing the path of the eventual economic and market recovery. What makes this year so incredible is, as of July 21, the S&P 500 Index moved positive for the year....

While the 10-year Treasury yield has traded in a narrow range since early April, the equivalent real yield, represented by the yield on 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), has continued to fall and could go lower....

The gradual reopening of the US economy has started to lift Main Street sentiment from depressed levels, according to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book. Despite growing concerns about rising COVID-19 cases in several pockets...

LPL Financial Research is looking ahead for new ways to face current challenges and prepare for better times. Use LPL's Midyear Outlook 2020 to chart a path to eventual economic and market recovery. Plus, learn how stocks may predict...

We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide insight into how the latest increase in COVID-19 cases and the rollback of certain reopening measures are affecting the state of...

Based on the latest polling data, there’s growing consensus that former Vice President Joe Biden potentially may win the election and Democrats possibly may sweep Congress. Some might think this could be a negative for stocks, as...

After pulling back in the first quarter of 2020, flows into bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dominated stocks in the second quarter. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the second quarter is consistent with recent...

The wild ride of 2020 continues, with the S&P 500 Index down 20% in the first quarter and up 20% in the second quarter. Much like dropping a 20 dollar bill and picking it up, this doesn’t mean you are 20 dollars wealthier. Down...

It’s certainly been a wild ride for stocks in 2020. Barely past the halfway point, the year has already brought the worst pandemic to hit the US in over 100 years, an unprecedented government-induced recession as much of the...

The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index posted a solid total return of 2.9% in the second quarter of 2020, its eighth consecutive quarterly gain, and a relatively strong quarter for the broad investment-grade bond index...

Following the massive beat in May nonfarm payrolls, many wondered if last month’s job gains pulled forward hiring ahead of the expiration of the Paycheck Protection Program to ensure small business loans were forgivable. Recall...

We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide valuable insights into the current state of the US economy, even as traditional economic data is too slow to pick up the changes...

What a quarter the second quarter was, with the S&P 500 Index adding 20.0%, for the best quarter since 1998 and the best second quarter since 1938. Of course, stocks fell 20% in the first quarter, so what we really have is a bad case...

Nearly four months ago, in late February, the 10-year Treasury yield broke to its lowest level ever, undercutting the record lows from 2016 of 1.32%. Over the following two weeks, as fears surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic intensified,...

The economy is moving in the right direction, as many economic data points are coming in substantially better than what the economists expected. From May job gains coming in more than 10 million higher than expected and retail sales...

What is a Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO)? Collateralized loan obligations (CLO) are portfolios of leveraged loans, a type of below-investment grade loan usually taken out by more heavily indebted companies. Each CLO is divided...

What can we learn about investment income opportunities from coupon-clipping environments? From 1977 to 2019, the price of the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index rose in 22 calendar years and fell in 21 years, but, adding in...

The US economy has made impressive progress in recent weeks. As the economy re-opens, the way we assess the recovery has changed. In March and April, we were looking for evidence that growth in COVID-19 cases was...

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, or CESI, tracks how the economic data fare compared with expectations. The index rises when economic data exceeds Bloomberg consensus estimates and falls when data is below forecasts. The CESI has...

Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the...

Stocks have shaken off the 5.9% S&P 500 Index drop last Thursday by gaining three days in a row before yesterday’s modest weakness. While researching and reading this week, three charts stood out that tell us quite a good deal...

COVID-19 has decimated global demand as lockdowns materially re-shaped consumer and business behavior. Even as states have begun to re-open, significant questions remain about how demand could recover. The May retail sales print...

The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield has been broadly declining since the early 1980s, when it peaked over 15%, but even over that long decline there have been intermittent periods of rising rates. In fact, after periods of...

Real-time data continues to provide valuable insight into the current state of the US economy even as traditional economic data is too slow to pick up changes that are occurring. Today we revisit some of the real-time data points that...

“Stocks take an escalator up, but an elevator down.” — Old investment axiom The saying above sure happened yesterday. In the end, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.9% for the worst day since March 16 and the first three-day...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) completed its third scheduled policy meeting of the year Wednesday, June 10, and continued to signal strong support for the economy, committing to keeping rates near zero until it is confident of a recovery...

US equities continued to gain ground in May, with the S&P 500 Index advancing an additional 4.5%. However, Treasury yields have been remarkably stable since the equity markets bottomed on March 23, with the 10-year Treasury yield...

In probably one of the least surprising economic calls of all time, the Nation Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared an end to the longest expansion ever and the start of a new recession. As shown in the LPL Chart of...

It has been a volatile year for the US dollar, which has given back nearly all of its gains in 2020 after behaving as a “safe haven” during the market volatility in March. While a variety of factors and headlines can have...

It appears optimistic stock investors have for the moment won out versus more dour economic forecasters. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment report this morning, revealing that the domestic economy gained...

In many ways, what we’ve seen so far in 2020 has been both record-breaking and devastating. From the S&P 500 Index peak on February 19 to the bear market lows March 23, stocks lost 33.9%. Now, 50 trading days later, stocks have...

The S&P 500 Index has rallied mightily off of its March 23 low, climbing almost 40% through the close of the market yesterday, as market participants look ahead to the economy continuing to gradually reopen. While there are signs that...

2020 is only five months old, but in many ways it is one of the most historic years we’ve ever seen. “2020 went from moving along nicely, to seeing the worst recession in a generation and the fastest bear market ever...

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 4. While that move marks an important milestone for an index that has rebounded more than 35% from its March 23 low, we believe...

Despite the gradual reopening of the economy in several states, sentiment on Main Street remains suppressed, as the effects of COVID-19 appear to be keeping a lid on American optimism in the most recent Federal Reserve (Fed) Beige Book...

The S&P 500 Index flirted with closing above 3,000 yesterday, even as much of the economic data is some of the worst we’ve ever seen in our lifetimes. We are often asked how this is possible. The reality is the double backstop of...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its bond exchange-traded funds (ETF) purchases in the week ending May 20 (the most recent data available), adding another $1.5 billion in bond ETFs to its balance sheet, bringing the total holding to...

Leading economic indicators are signaling that the pace of economic deterioration may be slowing. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, fell...

Most economic charts we look at from the LPL Research Department look alike. Many segments of the US economy came to an abrupt halt in March when the lockdowns and business closures began, making most economic charts covering March and...

The incredible rally off the March 23 lows continues for equities, with the S&P 500 Index now up more than 32% in 40 trading days. As impressive as the rally has been, we do have some near-term concerns, as we discussed in Downside...

There’re plenty of people who think negative interest rates are a good policy. But we don’t really think so at the Federal Reserve. And I think it’s an area of real uncertainty in the central banking world. -Fed Chair...

Retail sales numbers for April were released today, and the basic story was no surprise. Retail sales fell a record 16.4% in April, after declining 8.4% in March, already the largest decline since the government started keeping records...

As we discussed in earlier this week in Markets Due for a Pause, there were multiple technical reasons to believe that US equities were due for some sort a pullback following a more than 30% rally from the March 23 lows. Technical...

As stocks rallied 30% off the March 23 lows and earnings expectations were cut dramatically, valuations have become increasingly concerning for many investors (including some high-profile hedge fund managers being quoted in the...

Gold has done quite well so far in 2020, up more than 12% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index which is down about 10%. We started to warm to the yellow metal late last year and continue to think it can serve as a potential hedge in a...

Like most major segments of the bond market outside Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) experienced increased market stress as global COVID-19 containment efforts accelerated. And, like most major segments of the bond market,...

The number of COVID-19 tests in the US has ramped up significantly, which is a major step to defeating this terrible pandemic. “We know we need more testing to help quickly isolate those infected, and last week we had more than...

Economists had braced market participants for massive job losses in today’s employment report, but that does not make the numbers any less eye-popping. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment report this...

Stocks have staged one of the strongest rallies ever since the S&P 500 Index’s bear market low on March 23. Some, including LPL Research, are worried that the rally may have come too far too fast given the economic realities...

Recent economic data confirms that the US economy has entered a recession, led by the consumer, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy based on gross domestic product (GDP). The consumer spending collapse was evident...

One of the most historic market crashes ever took place 10 years ago today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index plunging more than 1,000 points, or 9%, within minutes, only to regain most of the losses by the end of the day....

Like other areas of the economy, the finances of states, counties, cities, and towns have been heavily impacted by efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. The disruption has raised concerns for municipal bond (“muni”)...

The Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) all met in the last week and while the show of power was minimal compared to recent weeks, they collectively reasserted their resolve to do...

One of the best known investment axioms is to “sell in May and go away.” This is largely because these six months have historically been some of the worst six months of the year. As you can see below, the next six months...

Over the past couple of weeks, we have thankfully witnessed new cases of COVID-19 in the US trending lower. Increasingly, we are also seeing governors implementing plans to re-open their state economies in phases. If the US economy...

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April came in 86.9, falling more than 30 points from the prior month. The monthly drop was the biggest for the index since 1973, reflecting the severity of the economic...

With 20% of S&P 500 Index companies having reported first quarter results so far, earnings season has been a mixed bag. In our April 13 earnings preview, we noted that S&P 500 Index earnings for the quarter were expected to decline 10%...

With 22 million jobs lost in the past four weeks, a record drop in retail sales, and huge drops in industrial production and housing starts, it is safe to say we are likely in a recession. Even the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the recent...

Headlines had oil selling at -$37.63 per barrel at close on Monday, April 20. The negative sign in front? Sellers had to pay buyers $37.63 to take the oil off their hands. Except this wasn’t the price of oil. It was the price of...

Stock returns get all the headlines, and with US equities entering their first bear market since 2008, there is good reason for that. However, fixed income may account for a significant portion, or even a majority, of many...

We continue to follow our Road to Recovery Playbook for help determining where the market is in its bottoming process. Today we are making two changes. The first is to Signal #1, which we upgraded from “monitoring daily” to...

What a ride 2020 has been for investors. The fastest bear market ever, now one of the steepest recoveries ever. After being down more than 30% for the year on March 23, this recovery is extremely impressive. In fact, before yesterday,...

First quarter earnings season will kick off this week with 40 S&P 500 Index companies slated to report results, including several of the biggest banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Analysts are calling for a roughly 10% year-over-year...

The economic damage inflicted by the current COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, with thousands of businesses temporarily shuttered and millions of workers out of work. While the historic drop in economic activity is real and...

Market Blog Stocks have rallied nicely off the March 23 lows on the back of a bold policy response from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lawmakers in Washington, DC, which was followed by signs that a peak in growth of COVID-19 cases may...

Did the US economy go into a recession last month? According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) the answer is no, but we think there’s a good chance that will be revised after the fact to show the economy did...

Experiencing a major pullback in stocks is never a comfortable feeling. In times like these, we believe it can be helpful to set aside the daily headlines and keep perspective of how stocks have historically performed over the long...

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment report this morning, showing the US jobs market posted its first month-over-month decline in March since September 2010. As seen in the chart below, total nonfarm...

More than 6 million people filed new claims for unemployment in the week ending March 28. It’s hard to capture what a number like that means. Last week’s 3.3 million new claims was already almost five times the previous...

With the US economy having entered recession, investors were braced for weak manufacturing data today. The report released this morning at 10am ET clearly showed the pandemic has negatively impacted the sector, but the headline number...

Factor #1 in our Road to Recovery Playbook is finding confidence in the peak of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Ford Financial Group and LPL Research are monitoring this factor daily, and we wanted to provide an update into what...

The big equity bounce has continued, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 17% from the multi-year lows hit last Monday. The big question on many investors’ minds is could this be a bear market rally? After all, some of the most...

With the major stock market indexes all entering a bear market this month, it’s no surprise that stocks have stolen most of the spotlight. However, actions taken by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to support what may be considered the...

Weekly new jobless claims were reported this morning, and to no one’s surprise they rose to levels thought unimaginable just a few weeks ago. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, 3.3 million people filed new claims for...

We’ve been monitoring the details in our Road to Recovery Playbook closely over the past few weeks, looking for ways to opportunistically take advantage of the sharp pullback in equity prices. The Playbook has five important...

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented volatility in recent weeks that has investors and traders scrambling to assess the economic and market impact of the aggressive containment measures. This past week the CBOE Volatility...

The incredible volatility continues, with the S&P 500 Index now in one of its worst bear markets ever, along the way making the quickest move from an all-time high to down 30% at only 22 days. What is a long-term investor to do?...

As COVID-19-related fear continues grip global financial markets, we wanted to take a closer look at factor #1 in our Road to Recovery Playbook: confidence in the timing of a peak of new COVID-19 cases in the United States. This is...

Policy makers in Washington, DC, worked over the weekend to try to put the finishing touches on a significant stimulus package to help cushion the economic and financial blow being delivered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal...

Over the past few weeks, investors may have been introduced to a new term they weren’t previously familiar with: circuit breakers. Today, we answer a few simple questions about circuit breakers: What is a circuit break? A circuit...

The indiscriminate selling continued yesterday, with one of the worst days in stock market history. Fears over the potential impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus) have led to one of the steepest sell-offs in history, rivaling what we saw in...

In just 13 trading days, the S&P 500 Index pulled back nearly 19% from its recent all-time highs, making this the fastest such move in stock market history. We all know why this happened, as concerns over COVID-19 (coronavirus) and...

On October 16, 2008 in an editorial for The New York Times, Warren Buffett, considered by many to be one of the greatest investors of his generation, repeated one of his favorite maxims: Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy...

While stock markets continue to be extremely volatile as they come to terms with how the coronavirus may affect global growth, the U.S. job market has remained remarkably robust. Continued U.S. jobs data resilience in the face of...

Despite strong market gains on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, the on-the-run 10-year Treasury yield ended the day below 1% for the first time ever and has posted additional declines in real time, sitting at 0.92% intraday as this blog is...

The hits keep coming, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) did an intra-meeting cut yesterday, causing stocks to sell off hard on concerns the economy is on more fragile footing than most think. Read First Emergency Rate Cut By the Fed Since...

In a move in which the timing was more compelling than the decision itself, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced this morning that it unanimously decided to cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (0.5%) from the 1.5-1.75% range to the...

Amid all of the attention on the coronavirus outbreak and related market volatility, and rightly so, we did get one of the most impactful U.S. economic data points on Monday—the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing...

Amid increasing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and its potential impacts on global economic growth, many major global stock markets entered correction territory on Thursday; a correction is generally defined as...

The coronavirus outbreak—or Covid-19 —has caused significant market volatility over the past week. Our approach as always is to focus on economic fundamentals first, but the uncertainty around the scope of the outbreak has...

News that the coronavirus—known as COVID-19—has spread to South Korea, Italy, Japan, and Iran, has led to massive selling around the globe, with many European markets closing down more than 4%. U.S. stock markets are...

The recent news that technology giant Apple would miss its fourth quarter 2020 revenue targets has understandably increased investor anxiety surrounding the potential economic impact of the coronavirus (now called COVID-19). Lost in...

We hope everyone had a nice Presidents’ Day yesterday, and by nice we hope you got the day off work! In honor of George Washington, starting in 1971, the third Monday in February was originally celebrated as a Federal holiday to...

A late month selloff in January saw the S&P 500 Index close marginally lower for the month. But stocks have taken off in February, with the S&P 500 up nearly 4% this month, as US economic data remains strong and fears over the...

5 REASONS WHY YOU SHOULDN'T BE INTIMIDATED TO MEET WITH A FINANCIAL ADVISOR

Erin Ford Redmond

Monday, April 23, 2018

1. I don't have enough money to invest. Sure, some firms have minimum dollar requirements in order for you to get in the door, however not all firms are the same. Be sure to research different advisors and see if they have a niche...

YOUNG FAMILIES

Brian J. Ullmann, J.D., CFP®

Monday, April 16, 2018

In my experience in working with younger investors, I find that many people start to get serious about their finances once they start a family. When you have a little one you're now responsible for, the stakes get a little bit higher,...

PROFILE: ERIN FORD REDMOND

Megan Terzian

Monday, February 5, 2018

Happy 2018! We are making our way through our staff and we hope that you are enjoying learning a little bit more about the folks at Ford Financial Group. This month we are featuring Erin Redmond. Erin has been with Ford for 4 years....

I TAUGHT 3rd GRADERS ABOUT MONEY AND LIVED TO TELL THE TALE

Erin Ford Redmond

Monday, January 29, 2018

My biggest 2018 resolution is to get out of my comfort zone. It is very easy for me to reject opportunities because they are scary. I am quite content in my little routine, thank you very much. However, this year I am facing my fears...

BREAK BAD SPENDING HABITS NOW

M. Dawn Collins, ChFC®

Monday, December 18, 2017

Yes, another year is almost over. Most of us take a few minutes to sit and ponder about how we can make next year better; more profitable, save more, spend less, max out the retirement plans, save for vacation, put money in our...

PROFILE: RYAN LOUIE

Megan Terzian

Monday, December 11, 2017

This month, we are featuring Ryan Louie. Ryan is a Financial Advisor and has been with Ford for 11 years. In addition to meeting with his clients and the day to day responsibilities of being a Financial Advisor, he’s also a...

HOW GIVING BACK IS GOOD FOR YOUR HEALTH

Erin Ford Redmond

Monday, December 4, 2017

What is the one thing that is not only good for your wallet, but also good for your well-being? Giving back and volunteering! The holidays are always a time of deal shopping, parties, treats, and time with family, but it also a time...

ROTH IRA TO SAVE FOR COLLEGE

Brian J. Ullmann, J.D., CFP®

Monday, November 20, 2017

In my experience, most of our clients tend to use a 529 college savings account to save and invest for their kid’s college. It is easy, can provide a tax deduction in some states, and has other benefits (like multiple...

TO FREEZE OR NOT TO FREEZE?

M. Dawn Collins, ChFC®

Monday, November 13, 2017

Data breach. Identity theft. Cybersecurity. Digital security. Password protection. Hacking. Malware. Are you as sick as I am? Seriously, it makes me want to go back to the 70’s… ok, 80’s - before these words and...

3 WAYS TO SAVE MONEY THIS HOLIDAY SEASON

Erin Ford Redmond

Monday, October 30, 2017

Ah the holidays… the time of year where our schedules fill up with parties, good food, laziness, and nostalgic movies. While the holidays are joyful and a perfect excuse to dive into some baked goods, it can also be a hard time...

A DANGEROUS PROBLEM AMONG YOUNG INVESTORS

Brian J. Ullmann, J.D., CFP®

Monday, October 23, 2017

One of the things I hear the most often from younger investors is how they are skeptical of equity markets and they want to use what they perceive as more conservative investments as they seek to protect their money as the save for the...

YOU'VE INHERITED MONEY - WHAT TO DO AND WHAT NOT TO DO

M. Dawn Collins, ChFC®

Monday, October 16, 2017

So a loved one left you money, either expectedly or unexpectedly. It might be tempting to treat yourself or your family to a luxury. A new car, a long vacation, new teeth, a face lift... ok, the last two are more impractical but you...

PROFILE: ROB FARMER

Megan Terzian

Monday, October 9, 2017

In this month’s profile, we are featuring Robert Farmer, one of two new advisors to join Ford Financial Group. While he’s only been here for a few weeks, he already feels like a long-time member of the team! We are excited...

KIDS AND MONEY

Erin Ford Redmond

Monday, October 2, 2017

How taking a simple approach has made money lessons fun for my children (and myself). A couple weeks ago I noticed my daughter, who is 6, was fascinated with the concept of money. As we strolled the aisles of the store rather than my...

THE BEST BUDGETING TOOLS

Brian J. Ullmann, J.D., CFP®

Monday, September 25, 2017

In my last post I discussed zero-based budgeting and how it can really help to turn your finances around. In this post I want to cover some of those tools that can make the budgeting process faster and easier, so you can stick with it...

10 THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT LTC INSURANCE

M. Dawn Collins, ChFC®

Monday, September 18, 2017

While most of us don’t want to be a financial burden to our kids, without an adequate investment portfolio or some type of Long Term Care Insurance, chances are… we will be. I know, we all say our kids would care for us in...

PROFILE: BRIAN ULLMANN

Megan Terzian

Monday, September 11, 2017

In this month’s post, we are featuring Brian Ullmann, Financial Advisor here at Ford Financial Group. Brian has been with Ford for 10 years. In addition to preparing and meeting with clients, Brian is also our go-to in house tech...

NINJA YOUR WAY THROUGH YOUR BUDGET

Erin Ford Redmond

Monday, September 4, 2017

Budgeting is so much fun... said no one ever. But look, we all should adhere to a budget, if for no other reason than to learn more about our spending habits over time. I am, still to this day, shocked how the little things add up. via...

TRACKING YOUR SPENDING VS. BUDGETING YOUR MONEY

Brian J. Ullmann, J.D., CFP®

Monday, August 28, 2017

Many people know, deep down, they need to do a better job of budgeting their money. Yet, we all come up with tons of reasons why we can’t do it THIS month…. You’re too busy, an odd expense just came up, you want to...

WHAT YOUR SPOUSE DOESN'T KNOW, COULD HURT THEM

M. Dawn Collins, ChFC®

Monday, August 21, 2017

Last year, while leaving for a conference, I had a morbid thought… what if the plane goes down? Would my husband know how to pay the bills online? Would he know the passwords? Does he know which payments go out automatically...

PROFILE: NIK REDMOND

Megan Terzian

Monday, August 14, 2017

Like many of us around here, Nik wears many hats – he is our experienced trader (thanks to his years of experience at a trade desk in Chicago; more on that later), advisor, manager and dad. Nik is used to me asking him a million...

10 EASY MONEY SAVING TIPS

Erin Ford Redmond

Sunday, August 6, 2017

If you love the NBC sitcom "Parks and Recreation" like I do, one of my favorite episodes features a scene where characters Donna Meagle and Tom Haverford spend one day treating themselves to anything they wanted, they called it: via...