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Is This The Start Of A New Bear Market?

Is This The Start Of A New Bear Market?

June 12, 2020
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“Stocks take an escalator up, but an elevator down.” — Old investment axiom

The saying above sure happened yesterday. In the end, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.9% for the worst day since March 16 and the first three-day losing streak in more than three months. What does it mean? We’ve been on record that we expect some type of well-deserved pullback or at least consolidation after the 45% bounce off of the March 23 lows and the best 50-day rally ever. Then add in the fact that June has been the worst month of the year for stocks since 2000 and some type of weakness is perfectly logical here and now.

“In many ways, this is one of the most overbought stock markets we’ve ever seen. Now the catch to this is previous times we’ve seen major levels similar to now have been closer to the beginning of bull markets than the end of bull markets,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

This is now one of the greatest surges off a major low ever. It is perfectly normal to see a drawdown of double digits after the initial surge weakens. This could be happening now.

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We’ve shown that huge up months like April tend to eventually resolve higher, but some near-term weakness is possible.

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Also, when more than 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 50-day moving average, this shows solid longer-term results. Again, suggesting that very overbought isn’t always a bad thing.

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There was a huge spike in stocks marking new monthly highs, again historically an overbought signal. This opens the door for some near-term weakness, but is a very positive sign longer-term.

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Last, in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was recently more than 13% above the 50-day moving average, one of the highest levels ever. The good news is one-year later stocks were higher every single time. Yet another clue that historically overbought isn’t always a bad thing for the bulls.

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A record run, over-the-top excitement from small traders, the Nasdaq at 10,000, historically high multiples, and seasonality all could be a factor in why a pullback here could be perfectly normal. In fact, if you are bullish, after a 45% rally, one of the best things would be for prices to reset some here over the coming months. We would be a buyer of weakness and use it as an opportunity for longer-term price appreciation.

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks. All index and market data from Factset and MarketWatch. This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC). Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.  To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor that is not an LPL affiliate, please note LPL makes no representation with respect to such entity. Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency, Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed, Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations, May Lose Value. For Public Use – Tracking 1-05021864