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Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1

Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1

September 11, 2020
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First off, our thoughts go out to everyone who was impacted by the tragic events of September 11, 2001—19 years ago today. It is a day to reflect and remember those who were lost.

One of the top requests we’ve had here at LPL Research is for more charts on the election. Over the next week, we will share some of our favorite charts on this very important subject.

Here’s how the S&P 500 Index performs under various presidents and congressional makeups. The best scenario has historically been a Democratic president and Republican Congress, while a Republican president and Democratic Congress has been the weakest.

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Building on this, a split Congress historically has been one of the best scenarios for investors.

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The best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress, a potential positive for 2020 that has played out after the massive reversal in the stock market since March.

View enlarged chart.

Looking at the four-year presidential cycle shows that stocks haven’t been down during a year the president was up for a re-election since FDR in the 1940s, another bullish tailwind for 2020.

View enlarged chart.

Here’s another look at this, as stocks historically have done much better when there isn’t a lame duck president.

View enlarged chart.

Come back on Monday, as we’ll share some more election charts then.

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